@article{oai:mie-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00012658,
 author = {谷村, 晋 and TANIMURA, Susumu and マルティネス, 真喜子 and MARTINEZ, Makiko and 西出, りつ子 and NISHIDE, Ritsuko and 水谷, 真由美 and MIZUTANI, Mayumi and 中村, 真梨子 and NAKAMURA, Mariko and 工藤, 紀子 and KUDO, Noriko and 竹本, 綾奈 and TAKEMOTO, Ayana and 畑下, 博世 and HATASHITA, Hiroyo},
 journal = {三重看護学誌, Ｍie Nursing Journal},
 month = {Mar},
 note = {application/pdf, Introduction The probability of occurrence within the 30 years of the Nankai megathrust earthquakes (M8–9 class) is estimated to be around 70%–80%. Japanese government assigned infants as persons who need consideration during disasters; however, the number of affected infants, which is indispensable to establish disaster prevention plan, has not been clarifed. The aim of this study is to estimate and project population aged under 5 affected by the coming tsunami over the next 30 years in Mie Prefecture.
Methods An overlay analysis with geospatial data of 2015 population census of Japan and digital map of presumed tsunami inundation identifed the census tracts inundated by the tsunami. The 0–4 year-old children inside these tracts were counted with the 2015 population census. Population projection in the affected area was conducted every five years. In each municipality, municipal population under 5 projected by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) was divided into tracts proportionally with actual population.
Results Out of 70,966 as total population under 5, 21,373 (30.1%) children were estimated to be affected by the tsunami. With the proportional division technique, the affected children under 5 and their percentage of the total were estimated as 20,172.2 (30.1%) in 2020, 20,206.9 (35.4%) in 2030, and 20,201.4 (41.8%) in 2045.
Conclusions The population aged under 5 affected by the coming tsunami was estimated to be around 20,000 and rather constant over the next 30 years., 【目的】南海トラフ巨大地震（M8–9 クラス ）の30 年以内の発生確率は70%–80% 程度と推計されている．災害時要配慮者に乳幼児が含まれるが，その災害対策立案に必要な被災乳幼児数が明らかにされていない．そこで，本研究では三重県の津波浸水想定地域に居住する5 歳未満児数を明らかにする目的で30 年間の人口推計を行った．
【対象と方法】平成27 年国勢調査の地理空間データと津波浸水想定地域のオーバーレイ分析を行い，津波浸水が想定される国勢調査小地域区域を特定し，その区域内の5 歳未満人口を集計した．次に，市町別5歳未満児人口推計（国立社会保障・人口問題研究所）を小地域の5 歳未満児実績人口で按分する方法で5 年毎に将来人口を推計した．
【結果】2015 年の三重県5 歳未満児人口70,966 人のうち，津波浸水想定地域に居住する5 歳未満児数（以下，被災5 歳未満児人口）は，21,373 人（30.1%）であった．5 歳未満児実績人口に基づく按分法による結果では，被災5 歳未満児人口は，2020 年20,172.2 人（30.1%），2030 年20,206.9 人（35.4%），2045 年20,201.4 人（41.8%）と推計された（カッコ内は全ての5 歳未満児に対する割合）．
【結論】三重県の津波浸水想定地域における5 歳未満児数の将来推計（2015–2045 年）に大きな変動はみられず，約2 万人で横ばいに推移した．},
 pages = {35--42},
 title = {三重県の津波浸水想定地域における5 歳未満児数の将来推計},
 volume = {21},
 year = {2019},
 yomi = {タニムラ, ススム and マルティネス, マキコ and ニシデ, リツコ and ミズタニ, マユミ and ナカムラ, マリコ and クドウ, ノリコ and タケモト, アヤナ and ハタシタ, ヒロヨ}
}