@article{oai:mie-u.repo.nii.ac.jp:00015059,
 author = {葛葉, 泰久 and KUZUHA, Yasuhisa and 水木, 千春 and MIZUKI, Chiharu},
 issue = {第2号},
 journal = {水文・水資源学会誌, Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources},
 month = {Mar},
 note = {application/pdf, 本報は，葛葉・水木（2021a）（前報）を補足するものである．前報では，T年確率水文量の算定手順に関し，修正SLSC法を用いた手法を提示した．しかし，その手法では，そこで問題にした「2 重の規準の問題」は解決できない．通常，我々は，A-規準（L-moment，対数尤度など）によって母数を推定し，B-規準（SLSC，AICなど）によって確率分布間の優劣を評価して最適な確率分布を選定する．しかし，A-規準とB-規準が異なるのは問題である.これを解決するために，最尤法で母数を推定してAICなどの情報量による規準値で確率分布間の比較をすればよいことは，最尤法とAIC等の情報量規準の関係ゆえ，おそらく多くの研究者が気づいていると考える.
本報では，前報に引き続いて，中小河川計画の手引き（案）について考えた．上述のように最尤法とAICを用い，安定性評価と称したリサンプリング法による評価を行わないのが良いと考える., This paper is the sequel to work described in an earlier report (Kuzuha and Mizuki, 2021a). In that work, we proposed a modified method for T-year hydrological event estimation using SLSC. However, the method did not resolve the “problem of a double criterion when selecting an optimal probability distribution.” Usually, we estimate probability distribution parameters using some criterion (“A-criterion”, e.g. L-moment method, method of maximum likelihood (MML)). Then we select one optimal distribution using some criterion (“B-criterion”, e.g., SLSC, AIC). If the A-criterion differs completely from the B-criterion, then conflict might occur between the two criteria. However, many researchers use two criteria in the present hydrological community. This problem is known as the “double criterion problem”. To resolve the problem, many researchers might use MML for the A-criterion and AIC for the B-criterion because AIC is linked closely to MML. Herein, we assess the merit of using MML and AIC.
Moreover, we considered the “Guide for River Plan Design for Small and Medium-sized Rivers” again, especially the “criterion for stability,” which the guide describes. Based on the results, we propose the use of MML for estimating parameters, and use AIC for goodness-of-fit test for selecting one appropriate distribution. Furthermore, we recommend that stability tests not be used in the procedure.},
 pages = {134--147},
 title = {AICを使用した確率水文量推定に関する研究},
 volume = {第35巻},
 year = {2022},
 yomi = {クズハ, ヤスヒサ and ミズキ, チハル}
}